Pair #5585

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-MPEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2994

YES ask: 0.4800
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.4800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-MPEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Marco Penge make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 262

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:08:48Z

Reasoning: To finish in the top 10 of a tournament, a player must have made the cut. A top 10 finish logically necessitates making the cut, but making the cut does not necessitate a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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