Pair #5584

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 192565

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-MPEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2994

YES ask: 0.4800
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.4800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:08:48Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall does not require leading after Round 1, and leading after Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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