Pair #5582

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-MPEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2994

YES ask: 0.4800
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.4800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MPEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7163

YES ask: 0.7400
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:08:28Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 20 does not require finishing top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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