Pair #558

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-SIM

Will Sungjae Im win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2549493

YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sungjae Im wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-SIM

Valspar Championship: Will Sungjae Im make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7815

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sungjae Im makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:03:11Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valspar Championship requires completing all rounds, which means making the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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