Pair #5579

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MPEN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 800

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-MPEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Marco Penge make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 262

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Marco Penge has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:08:28Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 and making the cut at the Valero Texas Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -69.34% (negative yield)
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -73.62% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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