Pair #5576

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-MPEN

Valero Texas Open: Will Marco Penge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2994

YES ask: 0.4800
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.4800

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Rules

If Marco Penge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MPEN

Will Marco Penge win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Marco Penge
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 898559

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Marco Penge wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:08:28Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 10 at the Valero Texas Open are independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5610
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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