Pair #5570

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-HLI

Valero Texas Open: Will Hao-Tong Li finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 848

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hao-Tong Li finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-HLI

Will Hao-Tong Li win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Hao-Tong Li
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6135375

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 0.9920
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Hao-Tong Li wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:08:10Z

Reasoning: These are two different tournaments. Winning the Masters has no logical bearing on finishing top 20 at the Valero Texas Open, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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