Pair #557

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-SIM

Valspar Championship: Will Sungjae Im finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15102

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0300
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SJIM

Will Sungjae Im win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2280125

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:03:11Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical bearing on finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship. These are independent tournaments.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0310
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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