Pair #5567

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-JTHO

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 3262

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0700

Rules

If Justin Thomas wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JTHO

Masters Tournament: Will Justin Thomas finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 46212

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:08:10Z

Reasoning: Thomas could win a different major (PGA Championship, U.S. Open, or The Open) without finishing top 20 at the Masters. Winning any major does not necessitate a top 20 Masters finish, and a top 20 Masters finish does not imply winning any major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -6.47% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -10.75% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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