Pair #5566

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JTHO

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2972

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-JTHO

Masters Tournament: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 23407

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:08:10Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in all 4 majors necessarily includes finishing top 10 at the Masters. The reverse does not hold — top 10 at the Masters alone doesn't mean top 10 at all 4 majors.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -12.11% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -16.32% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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