Pair #5565

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-JTHO

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2972

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-JTHO

Masters Tournament: Will Justin Thomas finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 46212

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:08:10Z

Reasoning: If Thomas finishes top 10 in all 4 majors including the Masters, he necessarily finishes top 10 at the Masters, which is within the top 20. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -51.88% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: 43
Hurdle yield: 4.19%
Excess yield: -56.07% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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