Pair #5554

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-MMCN

Valero Texas Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1634

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-MMCN

Valero Texas Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1737

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:07:49Z

Reasoning: If McNealy finishes top 5 in Round 1, he necessarily finishes top 10 in Round 1. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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