Pair #5553

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-MMCN

Will Maverick McNealy lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 187903

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maverick McNealy is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-MMCN

Valero Texas Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1737

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:07:49Z

Reasoning: If McNealy leads after Round 1, he is necessarily in the top 10 after Round 1. The reverse does not hold — being top 10 in Round 1 does not mean he leads.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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