Pair #5547

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-MMCN

Valero Texas Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21421

YES ask: 0.4600
NO ask: 0.5800
Last: 0.4700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-MMCN

Valero Texas Open: Will Maverick McNealy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 857

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:07:31Z

Reasoning: To finish in the top 20 of the tournament, a player must complete all rounds after the cut, which requires making the cut. Therefore a top 20 finish logically necessitates having made the cut. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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