Pair #5541

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-MMCN

Valero Texas Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1737

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-MMCN

Will Maverick McNealy win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 724120

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:07:31Z

Reasoning: Winning a tournament does not require finishing top 10 in Round 1 — a player could start poorly and come back to win. Round 1 top 10 does not imply winning the tournament either.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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