Pair #5538

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-MMCN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 2833

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-MMCN

Valero Texas Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 1634

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:07:31Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and finishing top 5 in Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open are entirely independent. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -68.27% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9600
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -72.55% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue