Pair #5536

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-MMCN

Valero Texas Open: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3473

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MMCN

Will Maverick McNealy win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2423032

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:07:31Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters and finishing top 5 at the Valero Texas Open are completely independent events at different tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9510
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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