Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-LABE
Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2811
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.9000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-VATO26-LABE
Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 25916
YES ask: 0.8100
NO ask: 0.2000
Last: 0.7100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:07:12Z
Reasoning: A top-5 Round 1 does not necessitate a top-5 overall tournament finish (can fall later), and a top-5 overall finish does not necessitate a top-5 Round 1 (could start poorly and climb). No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.8100
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A