Pair #5527

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 496609

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-LABE

Masters Tournament: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 167475

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:07:12Z

Reasoning: Leading Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open and finishing top 5 at the Masters are completely independent events at different tournaments. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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