Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-LABE
Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3050
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.3500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-MAST26-LABE
Masters Tournament: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 167475
YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:07:12Z
Reasoning: These are different tournaments entirely. Performance in Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open has no logical bearing on finishing top 5 at the Masters, and vice versa.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.0500
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A