Pair #552

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SJIM

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 1107

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

Rules

If Sungjae Im wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-SIM

Valspar Championship: Will Sungjae Im finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 60425

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.8800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sungjae Im finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:02:51Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Valspar (a non-major) has no logical connection to winning a major in 2026. No implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -65.15% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8500
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -69.43% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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