Pair #5515

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-LABE

Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3050

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-LABE

Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 25063

YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.9300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:06:53Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 overall in a tournament does not require finishing top 10 after Round 1 specifically, and finishing top 10 in Round 1 does not guarantee a top 10 finish overall. These are independent conditions.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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