Pair #551

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-SIM

Valspar Championship: Will Sungjae Im finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 60425

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.8800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-SIM

Valspar Championship: Will Sungjae Im make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7815

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:02:51Z

Reasoning: If Sungjae Im finishes top 5, he necessarily made the cut (you cannot finish top 5 without surviving the cut). The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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