Pair #5508

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-LABE

Masters Tournament: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 225774

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-MAST26-LABE

Masters Tournament: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 351368

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.5800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:06:34Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 at the Masters logically necessitates finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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