Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-LABE
Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2811
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.9000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-LABE
Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 56125
YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0800
Last: 0.9300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:06:34Z
Reasoning: A top 20 overall finish does not require a top 5 Round 1 finish. A top 5 Round 1 finish does not guarantee a top 20 final finish. No logical necessity in either direction.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.9300
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A