Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-LABE
Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3050
YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.3500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VATO26-LABE
Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 56125
YES ask: 0.9300
NO ask: 0.0800
Last: 0.9300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:06:34Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in the overall tournament does not require a top 10 Round 1 finish — a player can start outside top 10 and finish top 20. A top 10 Round 1 finish does not guarantee a top 20 final finish (could miss cut or fall back).
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.9200
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A