Pair #550

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-SIM

Will Sungjae Im win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2549493

YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sungjae Im wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-SIM

Valspar Championship: Will Sungjae Im finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 60425

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.8800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sungjae Im finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:02:51Z

Reasoning: If Sungjae Im wins the Valspar Championship, he necessarily finishes top 5 (the winner is 1st place, which is within top 5). The reverse does not hold — finishing top 5 does not guarantee winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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