Pair #55

Antecedent (implies)

KXFOMEN-26-BUB

Will Alexander Bublik win the French Open?

Series: KXFOMEN
Entity: Alexander Bublik
Expiration: 2026-06-10T17:00:00Z
Volume: 11701

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

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Rules

If Alexander Bublik wins the 2026 Men's French Open professional tennis tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (implied)

KXATPGRANDSLAM-26-ABUB

Will Alexander Bublik win a Tennis Grand Slam in 2026?

Series: KXATPGRANDSLAM
Entity: Alexander Bublik
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 754

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Alexander Bublik wins a tennis major (the Australian Open, the U.S. Open, the French Open, or Wimbledon) before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-16T22:51:29Z

Reasoning: Winning the French Open is winning a Grand Slam, so B implies A. A does not imply B since Bublik could win a different Grand Slam.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -15.50% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: 85
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: -19.72% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-03-16T23:07:05Z

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