Pair #5496

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-LABE

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 21667

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-LABE

Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3050

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:06:15Z

Reasoning: Winning a major has no logical connection to Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -67.13% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9200
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -71.41% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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