Pair #5493

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORTOP10-MAJORS26-LABE

All 4 Golf Major Tournaments: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10?

Series: KXPGAMAJORTOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-07-26T22:00:00Z
Volume: 6209

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes top 10 (including ties) in all 4 golf major tournaments in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-LABE

Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 2811

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.9000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:06:15Z

Reasoning: Top 10 in all 4 majors has no logical connection to Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open, which is not a major. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -98.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9800
Days to maturity: 56
Hurdle yield: 4.21%
Excess yield: -103.04% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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