Pair #5490

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 10181182

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-LABE

Masters Tournament: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 167475

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:06:15Z

Reasoning: If Aberg wins the Masters, he finishes 1st, which is necessarily within the top 5. The reverse does not hold — a top 5 finish does not mean he won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0600
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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