Pair #549

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-SIM

Valspar Championship: Will Sungjae Im finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 60425

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.4300
Last: 0.8800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-SJIM

Will Sungjae Im win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 2280125

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:02:51Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 at the Valspar and winning the Masters are entirely independent events. No logical implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4310
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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