Pair #5488

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-LABE

Valero Texas Open: Will Ludvig Aberg finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 3050

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-LABE

Will Ludvig Aberg win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ludvig Aberg
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 10181182

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ludvig Aberg wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:06:15Z

Reasoning: Winning the Masters has no logical connection to finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open — these are completely separate tournaments. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.9910
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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