Pair #5482

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-SSTR

Valero Texas Open: Will Sepp Straka finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 210

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sepp Straka finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-SSTR

Valero Texas Open: Will Sepp Straka finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sepp Straka
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 56388

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sepp Straka finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:05:57Z

Reasoning: Overall tournament finish and Round 1 finish are independent. A top-20 overall finish doesn't require a top-5 Round 1, and a top-5 Round 1 doesn't guarantee a top-20 overall finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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