Pair #5478

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 27229

YES ask: 0.8900
NO ask: 0.1700
Last: 0.8200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 565

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:05:57Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 overall necessarily means MacIntyre made the cut — you cannot finish in the top 5 of a tournament without having made the cut. The reverse is not true: making the cut does not guarantee a top-5 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1700
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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