Pair #5473

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12277

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.9000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 565

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:05:36Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in the overall tournament requires having made the cut and completed all remaining rounds. Therefore a top 10 finish logically necessitates making the cut. The reverse does not hold.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue