Pair #5472

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 239

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12277

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.9000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:05:36Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 in the overall tournament is unrelated to finishing top 10 in Round 1 specifically. These measure different things at different points in the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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