Pair #5471

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15576

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.2500
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 565

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:05:36Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 in the tournament requires completing all rounds after the cut, which means the player must have made the cut. The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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