Pair #5468

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 239

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-RMAC

Will Robert MacIntyre win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2924574

YES ask: 0.5100
NO ask: 0.5000
Last: 0.5100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:05:36Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valero Texas Open (final tournament result) does not logically necessitate finishing top 10 in Round 1 specifically. A player could shoot a poor round 1 score outside the top 10 but come back to win. And finishing top 10 in round 1 does not imply winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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