Pair #5467

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8683

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 565

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:05:36Z

Reasoning: Winning a major and making the cut at the Valero Texas Open are separate events. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -69.08% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -73.36% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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