Pair #5466

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-RMAC

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 8683

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-RMAC

Valero Texas Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 239

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:05:36Z

Reasoning: Winning a PGA Tour Major and finishing top 10 in Round 1 of the Valero Texas Open are unrelated events. Neither implies the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -68.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.9800
Days to maturity: 214
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -73.09% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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