Pair #5462

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 23266

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 30685

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:05:15Z

Reasoning: A top 5 finish in Round 1 does not logically necessitate a top 5 overall tournament finish (subsequent rounds can change standings), and a top 5 overall finish does not require being top 5 after Round 1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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