Pair #5461

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-03T22:00:00Z
Volume: 8278

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0100
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood has made the cut at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 23266

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:05:15Z

Reasoning: Being top 5 after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (the cut is set after Round 2 based on cumulative score), and making the cut does not require a top 5 Round 1 finish. No logical necessity.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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