Pair #5460

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VATO26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 240569

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 23266

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:05:15Z

Reasoning: If Fleetwood leads after Round 1, he is necessarily in the top 5 (being #1 is within the top 5). The reverse does not hold — finishing 2nd-5th in R1 is top 5 but not leading.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $2.0000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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