Pair #546

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-SIM

Will Sungjae Im lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1101

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-SIM

Valspar Championship: Will Sungjae Im make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sungjae Im
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7815

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.0200
Last: 0.8100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sungjae Im makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:02:51Z

Reasoning: If Sungjae Im leads after Round 1, he is still in the tournament and will necessarily make the cut (a player leading R1 cannot have already missed the cut). The reverse does not hold — making the cut does not require leading after R1.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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