Pair #5459

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4154

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-MAST26-TFLE

Masters Tournament: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 156623

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:05:15Z

Reasoning: These are two different tournaments. Round 1 performance at the Valero Texas Open has no logical bearing on a top 5 finish at the Masters, and vice versa.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.5900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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