Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-TFLE
Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 23266
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-TFLE
Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10 in Round 1?
Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4154
YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.3300
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:05:15Z
Reasoning: If Fleetwood finishes top 5 in Round 1, he necessarily finishes top 10 in Round 1. The reverse does not hold — finishing 6th-10th in R1 is top 10 but not top 5.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$2.0000
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A