Pair #5449

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4154

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-MAST26-TFLE

Masters Tournament: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-13T02:00:00Z
Volume: 113976

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.7200
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:04:55Z

Reasoning: These are different tournaments entirely. No logical dependency exists in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.8100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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