Pair #5444

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 4154

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-19T00:00:00Z
Volume: 58557

YES ask: 0.6200
NO ask: 0.4000
Last: 0.6200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:04:55Z

Reasoning: A top 20 final finish does not require a top 10 Round 1 finish, and a top 10 Round 1 finish does not guarantee a top 20 final finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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