Pair #5442

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP5-VATO26-TFLE

Valero Texas Open: Will Tommy Fleetwood finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-02T22:00:00Z
Volume: 23266

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VATO26-TFLE

Will Tommy Fleetwood win the Valero Texas Open?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tommy Fleetwood
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2262189

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tommy Fleetwood wins the Valero Texas Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-04-02T08:04:55Z

Reasoning: Winning the tournament does not require a top 5 Round 1 finish, and a top 5 Round 1 finish does not necessitate winning the tournament.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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